Short answer: New hire turnover, also called early turnover, is people leaving in their first weeks or months. In frontline jobs much of it is set before day one: the job was described differently, a requirement went unchecked, the hours or travel did not fit, or nobody was ready for the first shift. Fix those steps, then measure it by cohort.
Key takeaways
- Much early leaving in frontline jobs is set during hiring: an unclear picture of the job, requirements nobody checked and a slow handover to the first shift.
- A review of 31 studies found that people whose expectations of a job were met were less likely to plan to leave and more likely to still be in the job (Wanous and colleagues, 1992).
- We found no official Dutch figure for frontline leavers in the first weeks. CBS data show that employees with less than a year at their employer change employer almost twice as often as employees overall (CBS, NL, 2025).
- Measure new hire turnover per starting cohort with one fixed window, and record which hiring step each early exit points back to.
- Hiring cannot fix low pay, a poor manager or an unsafe workplace. Separate the leaving you can prevent at hiring from the leaving you cannot.
On this page: What is new hire turnover, and how do you measure it? · How common is early turnover in the Netherlands? · Why do new hires leave in the first weeks? · Which hiring step sets each cause? · Can you predict early leaving before you hire? · What should you change in your hiring process? · What changes for staffing agencies? · What can hiring not fix? · Conclusion · How Radius helps · FAQ
What is new hire turnover, and how do you measure it?
New hire turnover means people leaving soon after they start. There is no official window: pick one, such as 30, 60 or 90 days, and keep it fixed. In frontline work, where people often start in groups and a bad first fortnight shows quickly, we suggest also looking at the first two to four weeks.
The simplest way to measure it is by cohort: take everyone who started in the same period and follow that group.
New hire turnover rate = people from a starting cohort who left within the window ÷ people in that cohort who started × 100
Illustrative example. A distribution centre starts 40 order pickers in September. By the end of their fourth week, 7 have gone: 5 resigned and 2 were let go. New hire turnover at four weeks is 7 ÷ 40 × 100 = 17.5%. Three of the five who resigned said the night rota was not what they expected. That detail tells you which hiring step to fix.
40 order pickers who started in September, four weeks later
New hire turnover at four weeks = 7 ÷ 40 × 100
7 of the 40 have gone: 17.5%
5resigned; three of them said the night rota was not what they expected
2were let go
Three rules keep the number honest:
- Count by cohort, not by calendar month. A monthly leaver count mixes people who started last week with people who started last year.
- Count no shows separately. Someone who never turns up for the first shift did not leave the job. They left the hiring process, and the fix is different.
- Record whether each person resigned or was let go. A resignation and a dismissal point to different problems. Our guide to quality of hire measures in frontline recruitment places early leaving next to nine other measures.
Figures such as "four in ten frontline hires leave within 90 days" circulate online. They usually come from vendor surveys of US workers without full published methods, so we do not use them.
How common is early turnover in the Netherlands?
We found no official figure for frontline leavers in their first weeks. The closest official data come from CBS, the Dutch statistics office, and they point in a clear direction.
- In the second quarter of 2025, 3.8% of all employees moved to another employer. Among employees who had been with their employer for less than a year, 7.3% did (CBS, NL, Q2 2025).
- In 2022, 8.5% of employees with less than two years at their employer changed employer each quarter, against 2.8% of those with two years or more. Among the occupations CBS looked at, transport and logistics had the highest rate for that short tenure group, at 10.4% (CBS, NL, 2022).
- In the second quarter of 2026 there were 95 vacancies for every 100 unemployed people (CBS, NL, Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted, provisional).
Employees who moved to another employer each quarter, 2022
By time with their employer, the Netherlands
Two cautions: CBS counts only moves to another employer, and the data cover all employees, not frontline roles only. Still, new starters move more than anyone else, and a new starter who is unhappy in week two can usually find other work. The job has to be the one they were told about.
Why do new hires leave in the first weeks?
The causes you can act on mostly start before the first shift. In our view, five causes cover much of the early leaving that hiring teams can prevent. We found no Dutch data on how often each one occurs.
1. The job was not the one they were told about
The night rota, the cold store, the walking distance per shift, the 05:30 start. If these come as a surprise in week one, the new hire has a reason to leave and a reason to distrust what else they were told.
The research here is older but consistent in direction. A review of 31 studies covering 17,241 people found that newcomers whose expectations were met were more satisfied and committed, less likely to say they planned to leave, and more likely to still be in the job. The link with actual staying was weaker than the link with plans to leave (Wanous and colleagues, 1992). A review of 40 studies of realistic job previews, which give candidates an honest picture of the job including its downsides, linked them to lower voluntary turnover and also to lower dropout during the recruitment process (Phillips, 1998). A later review of 52 studies, with roughly 17,000 people, found that previews work mainly because people see the employer as honest (Earnest, Allen and Landis, 2011). We make the case for telling candidates about hard conditions in Tell candidates about the 05:30 start.
2. A requirement nobody checked
A forklift certificate that expired last year. A candidate who said yes to weekends but has childcare on Saturdays. A security role that needs a pass the person does not yet have. When these come to light after the start, the person is sent home, moved to other work or leaves. On a turnover report this looks like early leaving. In practice it is a check that happened too late. We wrote about this in why certificates are checked after the yes.
3. The hours, travel or pay did not fit their life
Many frontline sites sit on industrial estates, and early shifts can start before the first bus. A rota that changes every week does not work for someone with a second job or a child to collect. These facts are knowable at hiring. They are often not asked, because they feel like the candidate's problem. They become the employer's problem in week two.
4. The first shift was not ready for them
The site did not know they were coming. The badge was not ready. Nobody showed them where to stand or who to ask. A review of 70 samples of newcomers found that adjustment, meaning a clear understanding of the role, confidence in doing it and acceptance by colleagues, went with stronger intentions to stay and lower turnover (Bauer and colleagues, 2007). Each of those three things depends on information that the recruiter usually holds and the site often does not get.
5. They never stopped looking
When two weeks pass between the yes and the first shift, with no contact, a candidate keeps other options open. With 95 vacancies for every 100 unemployed people (CBS, NL, Q2 2026), those options exist. This is our reading rather than a measured effect: a long, silent gap between offer and start gives the new hire time to compare, and the first bad day makes the choice for them.
Which hiring step sets each cause?
Most early exits point back to one hiring step. The table connects what early leavers typically say to the step where the problem started.
Illustrative example. The quotes below are written to show the pattern. They are not from a named employer or a survey.
| What the early leaver says | What it usually points to | Hiring step where it is set | Change before the offer |
|---|---|---|---|
| "The nights were not what I signed up for." | Conditions not stated, or not discussed | Job advert and interview | Put start times, rota and physical work in the advert, and ask every candidate the same question about them |
| "I was sent home on day two." | A must have requirement was assumed, not checked | Screening | Check certificates and other must haves before the offer, and record what was checked and what was only said |
| "I could not get there by 05:30." | Travel never discussed | Interview | Ask every candidate how they will reach the site for the earliest shift |
| "Nobody knew I was coming." | Information lost between recruiter, planner and site | Handover | Send the site a short handover before day one |
| "I got another offer." | A long gap between yes and start, with no contact | Offer to first shift | Keep the gap short and confirm the start the day before |
| "I did not feel part of the team." | No named contact, no early conversation | First week | Name one person on site and plan two short conversations in the first two weeks |
Read one quarter of your own exits against this table. If most land in one row, start there.
Explore the platform: see how a structured voice interview asks every applicant the same questions, in the language set for the role, on the AI Interviewer page.
Can you predict early leaving before you hire?
Partly, and mainly from what you ask applicants directly. One study followed 445 applicants in two organisations and found that information collected before hire, including applicants' own history and stated intentions, predicted who later left voluntarily for reasons the employer could have avoided. The links were modest, and differences between groups by race, sex and age were small (Barrick and Zimmerman, 2005).
Read that carefully. It is one study in two organisations, and modest links mean many wrong guesses about individuals. It does not support filtering people on a CV gap, a postcode or a string of short jobs. Those proxies say little about the person in front of you, and they can shut out people who would have stayed.
The more reliable route is plainer. Make the conditions of the job explicit, ask every applicant the same questions about them, write down the answers, and check what can be checked. We explain how to run that kind of interview at volume in How to run structured interviews at high volume.
What should you change in your hiring process?
Seven checks, and most of them happen before the offer.
- Write down the conditions that make people leave. Start times, rota pattern, temperature, lifting, walking, travel to the site, when the first pay arrives. One page per role, agreed with the site manager.
- State them twice. Once in the job advert and once in the interview, in plain words. Ask every candidate whether the conditions work for them, and record the answer.
- Separate must haves from nice to haves. For each must have, decide how it will be shown: a document, a check, or the candidate's own answer.
- Check the must haves before the offer. Certificates with their expiry dates, availability for the shifts in the rota, a way to reach the site. Note what is checked and what rests only on what the candidate said.
- Keep the gap between yes and day one short. Confirm the start the day before, with the address, the time and a name to ask for.
- Hand over what was agreed. The site should know who is coming, what they were told and what is still open.
- Ask every early leaver one question. "What was different from what you expected?" Record the answer against the hiring step it points to.
Template: first shift handover
- Name, start date and start time
- Role, site entrance and who meets them
- Conditions discussed: shifts, travel, physical work
- Requirements checked, and anything still open
- What the candidate asked about or was unsure of
The research on previews suggests the honesty does not have to stop at the offer. The review of 52 studies found that a spoken or written preview delivered after hire may be the most effective design (Earnest, Allen and Landis, 2011). The first conversation on site is a second chance to say what the job is really like.
What changes for staffing agencies?
For agencies, early turnover sits between the agency and the client. The agency recruits, the client runs the first shift, and both lose when the worker leaves in week two. The agency loses the placement, and the client loses the shift.
Four things help:
- Get the conditions from the client in writing. Ask for the real rota, the real start time and the physical work, and update them when they change.
- Send the handover to the site, not only to the client contact. The person who meets the worker at the gate needs the five lines above.
- Measure early leaving per client and per site. If one site loses far more starters than another, the difference is likely to be on site, and you have the numbers to raise it.
- Treat a fit problem as a redeployment, not a loss. A worker who left because nights did not suit them may be right for a day role at another client. Record the reason, and the worker stays placeable.
What can hiring not fix?
Hiring cannot fix a job that does not work for people. If pay is below what nearby sites offer, if a supervisor treats new starters badly, or if the work is unsafe, a better interview will only move the exit from week two to week six. Look at those causes too.
The evidence has limits as well. None of the reviews cited here is specific to Dutch frontline work, and several are decades old. Their effects are real but modest, and a clear link with plans to leave is not the same as a clear link with actual leaving (Wanous and colleagues, 1992). Use them as direction, then test on your own cohorts.
Conclusion
New hire turnover feels like a labour market problem. Much of it is a hiring problem you can see coming: conditions that were not discussed, requirements that were not checked and a first shift that was not ready. Measure new hire turnover by cohort, ask every early leaver what was different, and fix the hiring step their answer points to. Then look at what hiring cannot fix.
How Radius helps
Radius Hire is the AI hiring platform for frontline roles. Its AI Interviewer, Match and Radius Passport sit on one candidate record, and a recruiter makes every decision. Radius is built to make the conditions of a job and the evidence for each requirement visible before the offer.
- The AI Interviewer runs a short, structured voice interview that candidates can take on their phone, whenever it suits them, in the language set for the role. The questions are set per role, so conditions such as shift times can be covered with every applicant. Candidates are told at the start that the interviewer is automated and that a person reviews the result.
- Match shows, for each requirement, whether it is backed by a document or a check, rests only on what the candidate said, or is still missing, with the moment in the interview that answered it.
- Where the employer uses Radius Passport, it checks identity and right to work with a trusted verification partner and records certificates with their expiry dates, so a recruiter can review the evidence before an offer.
- Radius never rejects a candidate on its own. A recruiter reviews the evidence and makes every hiring decision. Staffing agencies can read more on the For agencies page.
Radius is new, so this article explains how the product works rather than claiming results.
FAQ
What is a normal early turnover rate for frontline jobs?
We found no reliable Dutch benchmark for frontline jobs. Official CBS data cover job moves for all employees, and the frontline figures that circulate online usually come from vendor surveys of US workers. Compare your own cohorts over time and between sites instead.
Is a no show on the first day counted as early turnover?
No, count it separately. A no show never started the job, so it is a loss from the hiring process. Mixing the two hides which step needs fixing.
Do honest job previews put candidates off?
Not on the evidence. A review of 40 studies linked realistic job previews to lower dropout during recruitment, not higher (Phillips, 1998). Some candidates will still withdraw once they hear about a night rota, and that is better for them and for you than a resignation in week one.
Should we reject candidates who left previous jobs quickly?
Not on that alone. Short jobs on a frontline CV are often temporary contracts or seasonal work. Ask every candidate the same questions about the conditions of this job and decide on the answers.
Who should own early turnover, recruitment or operations?
Both, with one shared number. Recruitment sets expectations and checks requirements. Operations runs the first shift and the first weeks. Agree one window, one cohort count and one list of exit reasons that both teams read.
Sources
- CBS (Statistics Netherlands). "Werkloosheid gedaald in tweede kwartaal 2026". Published 30 July 2026. https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2026/31/werkloosheid-gedaald-in-tweede-kwartaal-2026 (checked 22 October 2026)
- CBS (Statistics Netherlands). "Minder werknemers stappen over naar een andere werkgever". Published 14 August 2025. https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2025/33/minder-werknemers-stappen-over-naar-een-andere-werkgever (checked 22 October 2026)
- CBS (Statistics Netherlands). "Bijna 6 op 10 baanwisselaars korter dan twee jaar in dienst". Published 22 February 2023. https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2023/08/bijna-6-op-10-baanwisselaars-korter-dan-twee-jaar-in-dienst (checked 22 October 2026)
- Wanous, J. P., Poland, T. D., Premack, S. L., and Davis, K. S. (1992). "The effects of met expectations on newcomer attitudes and behaviors: A review and meta-analysis". Journal of Applied Psychology, 77(3), 288 to 297. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.77.3.288 (checked 22 October 2026)
- Phillips, J. M. (1998). "Effects of realistic job previews on multiple organizational outcomes: A meta-analysis". Academy of Management Journal, 41(6), 673 to 690. https://doi.org/10.5465/256964 (checked 22 October 2026)
- Earnest, D. R., Allen, D. G., and Landis, R. S. (2011). "Mechanisms linking realistic job previews with turnover: A meta-analytic path analysis". Personnel Psychology, 64(4), 865 to 897. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-6570.2011.01230.x (checked 22 October 2026)
- Bauer, T. N., Bodner, T., Erdogan, B., Truxillo, D. M., and Tucker, J. S. (2007). "Newcomer adjustment during organizational socialization: A meta-analytic review of antecedents, outcomes, and methods". Journal of Applied Psychology, 92(3), 707 to 721. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.92.3.707 (checked 22 October 2026)
- Barrick, M. R., and Zimmerman, R. D. (2005). "Reducing voluntary, avoidable turnover through selection". Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(1), 159 to 166. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.90.1.159 (checked 22 October 2026)